Short-term Technical Analysis

Short-term Technical Analysis
Cross	Spot level	Previous day move (in pips)	Supp.	Res.	Daily target
USD/CHF	1.1440	-0.0004	1.1370	1.1505
Daily chart			1.1340	1.1565
Short-term chart			1.1290	1.1660
Comments The employment market is deteriorating rapidly around the world. According to the ADP National Employment report, the US private sector shed a record 742 000 workers in March (well up on February's figure of 706 000). This had a direct impact on the greenback, causing the USD/CHF to ease from 1.1468 to 1.1385. However, other positive economic indicators enabled the US currency to hold firm. Movements on the pair before the weekend will be driven by the start of the G20 summit and the statements that follow the meeting.
EUR/USD	1.3276	0.0083	1.3210	1.3300
Daily chart			1.3165	1.3355
Short-term chart			1.3090	1.3420
Comments ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has asked all of the G20 members to show unity to enable confidence to be restored. However, both Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy feel that the 20 members will be unable to reach agreement on all of the items being discussed. The ECB will also be holding its monthly meeting today, which is expected to result in a 50 bps interest-rate cut. Trading on the EUR/USD has been fairly uneventful over the past 24 hours, with the pair fluctuating in a range between 1.3168 and 1.3293. Our target remains at 1.3000.
USD/JPY	98.76	0.02	98.15	99.50
Daily chart			97.55	99.95
Short-term chart			97.25	100.55
Comments Pending sales of existing homes in the US rose 2.1% in February, which was a positive sign for the housing market. This helped to keep the greenback close to its 2009 highs, but it was still unable to go the full distance and reach the elusive 100.00 mark. Over the past 24 hours, the pair has traded between 98.40 and 99.16, while the EUR/JPY has hovered between 129.89 and 131.89. Our short-term target is still 100.00
EUR/CHF	1.5188	0.0094	1.5135	1.5220
Daily chart			1.5090	1.5240
Short-term chart			1.5010	1.5305
Comments A sharp rise in Eurozone unemployment in February to 8.5% from January’s revised figure of 8.3% did not have the expected effect on the EUR/CHF, which edged up from 1.5064 to 1.5192. The repeated attacks by Switzerland’s main economic partners on tax havens and banking secrecy ahead of the G20 summit have put the CHF under pressure. Despite this, we are still sticking with our target of 1.5000 for the pair.
GBP/USD	1.4506	0.0222	1.4505	1.4620
Daily chart			1.4450	1.4640
Short-term chart			1.4430	1.4695
Comments Wednesday proved to be a neutral day for the Cable, which traded between 1.4275 and 1.4513. US automobile sales may have fallen 37% in February from one year before, but analysts had been expecting an even worse figure. Today will see the publication of more economic numbers in the US (including factory orders, durable goods orders and first-time claims for state unemployment benefits). These could bring extra volatility to the pair. Our expected trading range for today is 1.4200-1.4500.

Crude Oil and Precious Metals
	Spot	Pips move
Crude Oil	49.00	0.48	Daily chart
Platinum	1135.00	13.0	Daily chart
Gold	926.95	8.70	Daily chart
Silver	13.04	0.14	Daily chart

Economic Data
GMT Time	Economic data	Country	Period	Forecast	Previous
13:45	ECB RATE DECISION	EU	APR	1.00%	1.50%
14:30	US INITIAL CLAIMS	USA		650K	652K
14:30	US JOBLESS CLAIMS	USA		5.600M	5.560M
16:00	US DURABLE GOODS	USA